Philippine central bank sees inflation rising to three-year high
Published Thu, Apr 30, 2026 · 01:02 PM
[MANILA] The Philippine central bank forecasts the April inflation rate could surge to between 5.6 per cent and 6.4 per cent, breaching its target range, amid conflict in the Middle East.
Inflation risks have intensified due to “significantly higher domestic petroleum prices, rising costs of key food items such as rice, fish, and meat, increased electricity charges, and the peso depreciation”, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said on Thursday (Apr 30).
The high end of the range would place the inflation at the fastest pace since the 6.6 per cent recorded in April 2023, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The forecast, which is faster than the 4.1 per cent in March, is also well above the central bank’s 2 to 4 per cent target range.
The peso recouped some of its losses on Thursday after hitting a record low of 61.750 against the dollar earlier in the day.
The BSP said that the anticipated decline in vegetable and fruit prices may help temper inflation, “but sources of upside price pressures continue to warrant close monitoring”.
The Philippines imports nearly all its oil needs from the Middle East. Transportation inflation already hit 9.9 per cent in March, the fastest pace since January 2023, with petrol and diesel prices recording their largest gains since September 2022.
The Philippine central bank raised its benchmark interest rate last week for the first time in more than two years in response to the inflation surge.
“The BSP will remain vigilant and guided by incoming data, specifically on inflation and growth prospects,” BSP said on Thursday, adding it will continue to monitor developments in the Middle East.
The government is set to release April inflation data on May 5. BLOOMBERG
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