Graham Platner Is Weakened—But He Can Still Win in November

Why am I optimistic about Platner? First and foremost, all indications are that this is poised to be a very good election year for Democrats overall—the best for the party since 2018. Democrats have done very well since the start of 2025 in special elections for state legislative and congressional seats across the country, as well as the statewide races in Virginia and New Jersey. Trump’s approval ratings are terrible. As data analyst G. Elliott Morris wrote earlier this week, this election is shaping up to be one where stalwart Democratic voters turn out at higher levels than their Republican counterparts; new voters favor the Democrats; and more voters swing from Republican to Democrat than vice versa. In this environment, Democratic candidates are the favorites in toss-up states like Michigan and even more so in places that lean slightly Democratic, like Maine.

In “wave” elections, as 2026 is likely to be, politicians from the president’s party often lose even if they are, like Collins, well-established figures. If you want to know what Platner’s biggest advantage is, it’s that he is a Democrat running in 2026.

And despite the recent headlines, Platner is a strong candidate. Trust me on this: He is. I know that he has a tattoo of a symbol that had been associated with the Nazi police, he’s written juvenile things in Reddit posts, he has at times misstated details of his personal background, and has behaved toward women in such ways that many Maine voters probably would not want him to marry their daughter. At the same time, he has connected deeply with voters in Maine, who have crowded his events around the state. At a time when many Americans hate traditional politicians and crave outsiders, Planter perfectly fills the bill. For a party desperate to connect better with men, gun owners, people who work in blue-collar jobs, and residents of rural areas, Platner potentially appeals to all four blocs.