How Trump’s War on the IRS Impacts the GOP’s Debt Ceiling Fight

“After tax season, we enter months where the government just spends more money, with the exception, really, of that June 15 date,” said Snyderman. On June 30, the Treasury Department is able to unlock more of the “extraordinary measures” used to keep the country from default. But June is also the start of hurricane season, which continues through November, and the federal government response is generally very costly.

Ensuring that the X date lands toward the end of the summer or fall, rather than the beginning, still gives Congress limited time to act. If slashing government spending and extending tax cuts are the sweetener in the reconciliation bill for conservative Republicans, the debt ceiling is the spinach. Fiscal hawks who are vehemently opposed to raising the borrowing cap may be more inclined to do so if it’s paired with their top priorities.

But this strategy comes with a time limit. Without the debt ceiling hike attached, Republicans would have until the end of the fiscal year—i.e., the end of September—to approve the reconciliation bill. With the fate of the debt limit inextricably entwined with the reconciliation bill, they have only until the X date to approve it.