New Hampshire’s Senate Race Leans Dem, but the State Is—Well, You Know

But in 2024, the Democratic National
Committee jilted New Hampshire and chose South Carolina to vote first in the
presidential primary. Last month, the state was snubbed again. South Carolina
will once again kick off the Democratic primaries in 2028.

But New Hampshire will be damned if
Americans take it, so to speak, for granite. Fortunately this year’s Senate
race is a nail-biter, and Republicans view the race as one of their pickup
opportunities. Sure, the contest doesn’t have the earthquake vibes of
Talarico-Paxton in Texas or El Sayed-Rogers in Michigan. But that doesn’t mean
it doesn’t come with a thick plot, suspense, and some good twists.

First off, the candidates. Odds are on
Republican John E. Sununu and Democratic Representative Chris Pappas to win their
respective primaries on September 8. They’ll then vie for the seat of
three-term Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen, who announced her retirement in
March. According to Polymarket, Sununu’s and Pappas’s chances of winning their
primaries (against MAGA Scott Brown and DSA Karishma
Manzur)
are over 90 percent, though one recent poll
showed Manzur, a biochemist and peace activist, gaining on Pappas.