Thomas Massie’s Defeat Will Tighten Trump’s Grip on the GOP

These election results are terrible for the country. Trump is an authoritarian using the presidency to enrich himself and punish his political enemies. The odds of Republican politicians taking any steps to rein him in were already close to zero, and these primary results will make GOP officials even more wary of crossing the president. Any Republican on the ballot in the next three years (and perhaps even after Trump leaves office) knows that he can end their careers. And think about the anti-democratic precedent set here. Trump led an insurrection; Cassidy voted to sanction it. Louisiana Republican voters chose loyalty to their leader over a senator who stood up for democracy.

On the other hand, there are now two senators (Cassidy and retiring Thom Tiillis of North Carolina) with very frosty relationships with Trump and likely a third (Cornyn if he loses). Susan Collins of Maine is up for reelection in a Democratic-leaning state. Kentucky’s Rand Paul and Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski also go their own way occasionally. So it’s possible that in a Senate where Republicans control 53 seats, they are down to 47 sure “yes” votes. Cassidy, only days after his defeat, supported a resolution to end the war in Iran and is signaling that he will oppose funding Trump’s White House ballroom. Legislation and judicial confirmations (perhaps even for the Supreme Court if a justice retires) are likely to get harder for Trump.

And the fealty to Trump from the Republican base is not at all shared by average voters. Polls show that around 60 percent of Americans disapprove of the president, compared to fewer than 40 percent who approve. Even 47 percent of moderate Republicans disapprove of Trump, according to a recent Pew Research Center poll. So do 60 percent of men, 74 percent of Hispanics, and 75 percent of Americans 18-29, three groups who were more pro-Trump than expected during the 2024 election.